Why measuring only revenue, funding, and jobs means we find out about problems too late—when we could have helped months earlier.
Two entrepreneurs start similar businesses. Both have solid business plans. Both secure comparable funding. Both operate in the same market with similar teams.
One year later:
What made the difference?
These metrics are lagging indicators. They tell us what already happened. By the time revenue declines, funding dries up, or layoffs happen, months of silent struggle have already passed. The psychological toll accumulated. The network connections weakened. The community support never mobilized—because we had no early warning signals.
Here's what typically happens in the 6 months before traditional metrics show problems:
Research in community psychology, organizational behavior, and network science shows there are measurable leading indicators—human factors that predict outcomes months ahead.
Hope, efficacy, resilience, optimism. When these decline, performance follows—but with a lag we can use to intervene.
Connection patterns, network position, relationship strength. Isolation predicts struggle before revenue does.
Collective efficacy, sense of belonging. When community belief weakens, individual struggles intensify.
By measuring these human factors continuously (not just annually), we can identify entrepreneurs at risk 3-6 months before crisis—when targeted support can actually help, not just document failure.
The difference between Entrepreneur A (thriving) and Entrepreneur B (struggling) wasn't visible in their business plans or initial funding. It was in their psychological capital, network position, and community support—factors traditional metrics ignore completely.
If we measure these human factors, we can help Entrepreneur B before they struggle, not after they've already given up.
Now that you understand the challenge, let's explore the three research-backed concepts that predict entrepreneurial success.